Key challenges that anyone using trends or forecasting should be aware of
In futures research it is vital properly to balance up the elements of continuity and discontinuity that surround trends. Is the trend under discussion really new, or - as is often the case - is it just a more or less important new form of a previously underestimated but longstanding development? It is always a good idea to consider the history of a trend, and of ideas about a trend, before assessing the trend's likely evolution in the future.
You must also accurately estimate the timescales that surround trends. Just exactly when will a trend turn upwards or downwards? How long will it last?
When looking at different views about the future, you need to distinguish between the conventional wisdom of the media, or of the establishment, and the reality of what is developing on the ground. The two are not the same. More broadly, it makes sense to distinguish the subjective perception of change on the part of design users from objective changes - or the lack of them. For example, we all feel that technology breakthroughs come more and more frequently nowadays. But whether this feeling is always fully justified by the facts is debatable.
An obvious further challenge is to work out the direction and tempo of developments in different countries. We live in a more global world, and one where risks, in particular, appear to be global. In that case the relationship between trends that are universal, and those that apply only to particular countries or regions, needs very careful consideration. The hackneyed 1980s slogan ‘Think global, act local’ is no guide to the subtle analysis that’s required.